Crossbearing
Context → assessment → decision
01FocusRisk in the context of decisions.
Specialisation — risk analysis. Primary focus — macroeconomics and geoeconomics. Questions before a decision What are the actual conditions in this region, beyond the stated ones? Is it worth entering this market? What could happen to this asset? What risks does this transaction entail? What will change in the sector over the next year? Open-source intelligence (OSINT) Statistics, registers, reporting, sanctions monitoring and publicly available field data. Collection and processing follow the contract and EU law. The output is a situation assessment: what is happening, which risks are real, which are overstated and what options are available to preserve resources under uncertainty.
Your project question
Task definition — what needs to be decided, what data is available and what is missing.
Source collection and verification
Source collection and assessment — source reliability and information credibility assessed separately; Admiralty Code ratings.
Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing — facts distinguished from assumptions and alternative explanations considered; ACH and competing hypotheses.
The client’s decision
Result — situation assessment, scenarios, options for action and limitations of conclusions.
02MethodologyThe basis for conclusions.
Information sources
Source reliability and the credibility of the information itself are assessed separately using Admiralty Code ratings. Each conclusion can be traced to a specific source and its assessment.
Hypotheses and assumptions
ICD 203 — intelligence community analytical principles: facts are distinguished from assumptions, and key assumptions are explicitly tested using Key Assumptions Check. Alternative explanations are examined using Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).
Risk management
Risk assessment and recommendations follow the logic of ISO 31000: risk is described in terms of likelihood, consequences and the actions available in the current situation or when data-based triggers are met.
The source selection, tools and depth of analysis are specified in the contract for the particular task.
03DeliverableWhat you receive
Type: analytical brief. Typically 5–15 pages, depending on the task.
Format — a document, presentation or question-and-answer session, as agreed.
04 / RESEARCH EXPLORER
Follow the connections.
Research nodes / illustrative connections
Select a direction to explore its research questions.
Scope of analysis
CPC, Druzhba and TITR (Middle Corridor). Transit, tariffs, infrastructure and political risks.
Research question
Where do capacity, tariffs and border procedures limit route substitution?
Baku / Aktau / Turkmenbashi / Black Sea connections
Schematic research map. Lines illustrate connections to examine; they do not show live traffic, current threats or sanctions status.
05CollaborationThe task determines the format.
Open to trial collaboration on agreed terms — the simplest way to establish whether we are a good fit.
Working arrangements
Type: contract project. The task, deadlines and deliverable are agreed before work begins. An overview of a sector, region or specific situation. Type: subcontracting. An analytical component within your project — for consulting teams requiring regional or risk expertise. Type: publications and commentary. Joint materials and commentary for media.
Terms of collaboration
Work is conducted within applicable law, including EU sanctions restrictions. Client data is handled confidentially under the terms of the contract. We reserve the right to decline a project before entering into a contract.
Let’s discuss your question.
Describe the question to be examined and the decision that depends on the outcome. We will discuss timing and format directly.
contact@crossbearing.tech